How Much Could Tarik Skubal Earn in Free Agency?

Photo of Tarik Skubal from Kamil Krzaczynski of Imagn Images

Tarik Skubal is the best free agent on the market, however, the asking price might be well into the hundred millions. In today’s article, I’ll be examining what he could possibly get in free agency, and how much he is actually worth. Let’s get into it.

First, let’s examine Skubal’s stats and compare them to other pitchers and how much they received in free agency.

In 2026, Skubal posted a 4.6 bWAR with a 2.72 ERA along with a 0.964 WHIP and 186 strikeouts to 158.2 innings pitched. While those numbers might not sound extraordinary, he posted much better numbers in 2024 and 2025 when he was nominated an All-Star both years.

The largest contract by a pitcher was in 2019 when Gerrit Cole signed a $324 million dollar contract with the New York Yankees. It is fair to say that Cole performed better in 2019 than Skubal did in 2026, however his past seasons were not as dominant as Skubal’s. Teams also tend to have a recency bias when it comes to signing a free agent which could explain Cole’s contract.

Another comparison is Stephen Strasburg who signed in 2019 with the Nationals for $245 million dollars, however, just like Cole, it could be argued that Skubal has a better track record throughout the years.

Averaging those contracts out and you get 284.5 million dollars. Adjusting for inflation, the average is about $375 million dollars in 2026. We can reduce this by about $15 million because of the recency bias I previously mentioned. That brings the total down to about $360 million.

ESPN surveyed 27 MLB insiders and they predicted a range of contracts but the average AAV was just above $340 million while the average contract length was nine years. If you average my contract and the insiders’ predictions you get to $350 million dollars over eight years which comes out to be $43.75 million dollars a year.

While $350 million for a pitcher over eight years might sound crazy, Skubal is the best pitcher on the market and the impending lockout might push Skubal's contract up, and, with correct play from his agent, he might land the biggest contract for a pitcher in MLB history.

Thanks for reading!