MLB Draft Lottery: Who Received the Number 1 Pick?
Doesn’t it feel like the 2025 MLB Draft just happened? Today, the Draft didn’t happen, but a key step toward the Draft did. The Draft Lottery happened today at 5:30 PM ET, and it’s what you probably would’ve expected, so let’s dive into the results.
What is the Draft Lottery?
The MLB Draft Lottery is a system used to determine the order of the picks in the Major League Baseball Draft for teams that did not make the postseason. It was introduced (partly) to help prevent teams from intentionally losing games to secure higher draft picks, with the lottery drawing held annually during the Winter Meetings.
What Happens to Teams that Make the Playoffs?
Teams that qualify for the postseason will have their draft picks determined by their regular-season records, but they will pick after the teams that did not make the playoffs. The teams that make the playoffs will select from the 15 spots after the non-playoff teams have been allocated their lottery picks.
Why Are Some Teams Ineligible for the Lottery?
Teams are only ineligible for the draft lottery if they have received a lottery pick in the last two drafts. Teams ineligible for the draft lottery will pick no higher than 10th in the MLB Draft.
Here were the odds for each team to receive the number 1 spot heading into the lottery, and where the odds said they would end up:
1. White Sox (27.7%)
2. Twins (22.2%)
3. Pirates (16.8%)
4. Orioles (9.24%)
5. Athletics (6.6%)
6. Braves (4.5%)
7. Rays (3.03%)
8. Cardinals (2.3%)
9. Marlins (1.8%)
10. Rockies (ineligible for lottery pick)
11. Nationals (ineligible for lottery pick)
12. Angels (ineligible for lottery pick)
13. Diamondbacks (1.5%)
14. Rangers (1.3%)
15. Giants (1.0%)
16. Royals (0.8%)
17. Astros (0.3%)
And here are the results:
1. White Sox
2. Rays
3. Twins
4. Giants
5. Pirates
6. Royals
7. Orioles
8. Athletics
9. Braves
10. Rockies
11. Nationals
12. Angels
13. Cardinals
14. Marlins
15. Diamondbacks
16. Rangers
17. Astros
Here’s how the rest of the first rounds looks:
18. Reds
19. Guardians
20. Red Sox
21. Padres
22. Tigers
23. Cubs
24. Mariners
25. Brewers
Biggest Rise: Giants (+11)
Biggest Fall: Cardinals (-5), Marlins (-5)
The Odds Never Lie (Stayed the Same as Prediction): White Sox, Rockies Nationals, Angels, Astros
Thoughts:
As a Cubs fan, it’s makes me smile when I see that the Cardinals (along with the Marlins) had the biggest fall in the lottery. It also pains me that the Cubs’ crosstown rival got the first pick.
The rise of +11 for the Giants was a much needed boost, since their farm system is deteriorating at high speed. There’s even a report circulating that they could trade away their best prospect, Bryce Eldridge. So yeah. They needed that.
Send your “I’m Sorry” cards to the Astros because you would hate to JUST BARELY miss out on the playoffs, and then slide into the last lottery pick. Their farm system also needs some rebuilding. They only have 1 top 100 prospect and he’s ranked #93.
To all the teams that made the playoffs, and didn’t get to be in the Draft Lottery: Sorry, but a playoff run (no matter how small) usually costs a pretty penny.
You can read about the draft on MLB.com here, on MLBTR.com here, and on Bleacherreport.com here.
But thank you for coming here and reading my article, and I will see you tonight for the Winter Meetings day #3 (I’ve already done day 1 and 2 in this article) recap.