A Way Too Early Check-In on My 2026 MLB Bold Predictions
Before the 2026 MLB season started, I made bold predictions for the season. This week, I decided to take a look at them, and see how they are faring. Let’s take a look at all five starting with number one.
All stats are from Friday morning.
I said:
“1) The Red Sox will not contend for a playoff spot
After losing Alex Bregman, and not signing his replacement in Bo Bitchette, the 2026 season doesn’t feel like the Red Sox’s to win. Jim Bowden of The Athletic seems to agree with me. Apart from over paying for SP Ranger Suarez, they really haven’t done a lot with their offseason. Their quiet offseason combined with a few loud moves from the other AL West teams does not seem to bode well for them.”
My thoughts so far:
So far, this prediction is coming true. The Red Sox are last in the AL East, and are tied for the 3rd worst team in MLB right now. It also doesn’t help that Roman Anthony, Sonny Gray, Triston Casas, Kutter Crawford, and Tanner Houck (and four others) are all injured. The Red Sox are on a three game losing streak, and they have the 10th hardest strength of schedule remaining (per teamrankings.com).
I said:
“2) 5 or more player will have 50+ HRs
Now this might not seem like a bold prediction, but when you realize the fact that this hasn't happened in all of MLB HISTORY, you start to realize that it’s harder than it looks. In fact, there have been only three times where even four players have hit 50+ bombs. 1998, 2001, and 2025. In 2025, almost 5+ players hit 50+ home runs. Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, and Shohei Ohtani all hit at least 50, with Eugenio Suárez hitting 49, coming up just short.”
My thoughts so far:
This one is looking great until you realize that these players will eventually slow down their insane run. Yordan Alvarez is leading MLB in HRs with 11, followed by Munetaka Murakami (10 HRs), James Wood (10 HRs), Aaron Judge (9 HRs), and 10 players with 8 HRs. While that is a very good pace, those numbers are probably not sustainable, but at the moment, we are pacing for about 14 players to surpass 50 HRs. We’ll see if any players can keep up this record setting rate.
I said:
“3) One of the teams that has not won a World Series (Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, and Tampa Bay Rays) will win one in 2026
Can you believe that ⅙ of all of MLB has not one a World Series title? The Seattle Mariners haven’t even made it to one, but they were so close in 2025! 3 of these 5 teams made the playoffs last year (Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers made it), so there is some hope. The Rays even made the WS fairly recently. They lost to the Dodgers in 6 games in 2020. I think we can count out the Rockies though.”
My thoughts so far:
Well…it’s not going to be the Rockies. They are last in the division with a record of 10-16. The Mariners aren’t off to the hottest start either. The M’s currently sit in 4th place in their division with the record of 11-15. The Rays at least have a winning record with 13 wins and 11 losses. The Brewers have the same record as the Rays winning 13 games and losing 11. But where it really gets interesting is the Padres. The Padres are 17-8 (tied with the Dodgers for the division lead), and are currently tied for the second best record in all of MLB. Collectively, these five teams have a 13.1% chance to win the World Series (per fangraphs.com).
I said:
“4) Kyle Tucker will not have a good season
No. I’m not just bitter. It just would be pretty funny to see a player get a record setting contract, and then have a terrible year. Countless MLB players like Albert Pujols, Jason Heyward, Bobby Bonilla, and Carl Crawford have all experienced down years after signing big contracts. After all, 2025 was one of Kyle Tucker’s worst years, and least when we are talking about SLG, and OBP.”
My thoughts so far:
Alright. Maybe I was a little bitter, but I wasn’t wrong. Kyle Tucker has a 0.1 bWAR, and for a guy getting paid $57.46 million per year, barely being above average is not acceptable. He also has only 3 home runs and is on pace for the most strikeouts in his career. Combined with his 2nd lowest OPS, OPS+, batting average, Rbat+, and rOBA, this could be his worst season yet. (In 2018, he was plagued by injury and only had 64 ABs.)
I said:
“5) JJ Wetherholt will win NL ROY
This is probably the least bold of them all. Wetherholt is almost a lock to be called up by the Cardinals, especially since Donovan was traded, and, if he gets rolling, there is a good chance he’ll be in contention for the NL ROY. MLB.com seems to agree with me. Wetherholt has also been raking in the minors, hitting .290 or above at every level he’s been to (Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A). The hard part for Wetherholt will be to thrive at the highest level.”
My thoughts so far:
According to ESPN, +800 gives JJ Wetherholt the 3rd best odds to win the NL ROY (at the time of this publication). Wetherholt also has a better bWAR than other contenders such as Konnor Griffin, and Andrew Painter. (Side note: he also has a better WAR than Kyle Tucker.) His OPS+ is above 106, which is well above league average. On the flip side, he is batting .218, with only 11 RBIs over 87 ABs. One fun note though is that he hit a home run on his first major league game. I would say he needs to step it up if he wants to win ROY, but it’s not out of reach.
Hopefully I get a few of these right. Thanks for reading!
