What is Wrong With Paul Skenes?

Paul Skenes has struggled significantly in recent outings, but in more ways than you might expect. Today, I’ll examine his recent results, dig into what’s really behind his struggles, and attempt to solve this mystery once and for all. Let’s get into it.

One of the concerns with Skenes is that his velocity and effectiveness are way down. In his rookie year, he threw 404 pitches at 99 mph or faster. In 2026 so far, he only has three. In his second most recent outing, he didn’t throw any pitches over 97 mph. Skenes only threw 65 pitches before being pulled against the Marlins.

He then skipped a start because of velocity concerns, and on Thursday, August 20th, he pitched only 4.1 innings on 81(!?) pitches against the Tigers without throwing a single pitch over 98 mph. His average velocity has also dropped every single month, with it starting out at 97.2 in March and April but drastically dropping to a whopping 96.4 mph.

And it’s not just the velocity. Basically every single one of his pitching statistics has worsened compared to both last year and his first career year. Even his ERA this year is higher than his previous two seasons combined.

I also want to note that he was an All-Star this year (because the Pirates needed someone to represent them), however, he most likely won’t be winning any other awards such as Cy Young, All-MLB Team, or ERA Title.

The Pirates aren’t even winning with him on the mound. Since May 17th, Pittsburgh is 4-13 when Paul is on the bump with a win rate below 25%.

However, what’s causing this dip in performance? Well, there are a few theories.

Some believe that he is trying to play through an arm/leg injury, but that the Pirates still need him to pitch, so they are just monitoring his workload and giving him days off.

Others think it could be weight related, as it seems he has put on a couple of pounds and has been doing hot dog commercials and has his own hot dog machine in his apartment (no, I did not make that up).

However, the likeliest theory analysts can come up with (including Tom Verducci) is that it’s mechanical, saying he’s less in sync with his own body. The pitcher’s body parts are not timing up as well as they normally do during the delivery.

His foot is landing slightly more towards 3B, which eliminates some crossfire. But Verducci also calculated that the offset of Skenes’ release point is 8 to 9 inches less than it usually is.

Essentially, he’s not creating the same angle with his arm, which is making his pitches move in less effective ways.

While there is not one definite answer, Paul Skenes’ drop off could be a factor of him simply over-performing in his first two years, it could be a factor of one of the things I listed above, or it could be something that nobody, not even Skenes, knows about. However, it is safe to say something weird is going on with Skenes’ performance. And whether it’s mechanical or mental, it’s something that needs to be addressed if the Pirates want to compete down the road.

Thanks for reading!